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http://www.theforexnittygritty.com/forex/european-central-bank-rate - European Central Bank Rate - The European Central Bank rate of interest on loans to client banks may fall in the coming year. The new European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, is expected resemble US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in his actions, more so than his predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet. Draghi, like Bernanke, studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. With Greek debt default still a strong possibility the EU has given the bank broader powers to prop up banks as well as governments. There are two problems that leaders of the EU and the Central Bank face. One is that governments across the continent need to spend less. We see this in the recently announced French austerity plan. The other is that decreased spending could well drive the continent back into a recession. It appears as though Draghi may follow Bernanke's lead in driving interest rates lower in an attempt to avoid recession and increased unemployment by cutting the European Central Bank rate among other measures.
There is, indeed, speculation that Draghi could find himself following the Fed example of buying government bonds as well. The new bank president has already surprised many by issuing 1% interest loans amounting to over $600 Billion USD to prop up ailing European banks. The end result of all this could well be a yearlong decline in the Euro. Currency traders and others can heartened by the prospect of the EU getting a handle on the debt crisis. Over the long term, a solution to the continental sovereign debt dilemma can only mean good things for the EU. However, it may well be a bumpy and somewhat downward ride for the Euro until the EU gets its house in order. Volatile foreign currency rates were the hallmark of last year and may well continue into 2012. A reduced European Central Bank rate may well lead to a long term solution but at the price of declining Euro in the year or years to come.
If the Euro does decline it will probably not fall all at once or at a steady rate. Trading options on the falling Euro may be the best trading bet. When the trader buys calls or puts on one currency with the other he limits his investment risk to the price of the options contract. Traders will be able to decide upon trades based upon solid fundamental and technical analysis. By purchasing options the trader will be able to avoid substantial losses if his analysis is faulty. On the other hand he will be able to leverage his investment by purchasing options as the cost of an options contract is substantially less than the cost of the underlying currency. As always we are not predicting that the Euro will fall but offering a thought process for traders to follow in developing and executing currency trades. If the impression that Mr. Draghi gives of following in the steps of Mr. Bernanke is correct that will give traders useful insight into the likely direction of the Euro in 2012.
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